Friday, September 25, 2009

Canadian House of Commons to grow by 34 Seats?

Speculation is rampant that the current 308 seat Canadian House of Commons could grow to 342 seats before the next federal election. Democratic Reform Minister Steven Fletcher, a member of the Harper government, is working on legislation which would greatly increase the number of MP's in Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta.

One would think that allocating constituencies for the House of Commons is a relatively simply task. In theory, in a liberal democracy like Canada, it should be one person one vote, and therefore all constituencies should be of similar size. But the history of Canada and past agreements with Provinces has created a cumbersome mechanism.

For example, since 1915, the senatorial clause has guaranteed that no province would have fewer members in the House of Commons than it has in the Senate. The Representation Act, 1985, created a new grandfather clause that guaranteed each province no fewer seats than it had in 1976 or during the 33rd Parliament. Legislation like this gives more power to smaller provinces and guarantees Quebec 75 seats.

Let's for a moment assume all federal ridings were equal. If this were the case, each riding would have about 108,000 people. However, this is not the case. For example, as things stand today, the average Ontario riding has about 107,000 people, in British Columbia the number is about 108,000 and in Saskatchewan it is about 69,900. Therefore, the principle of one person one vote is modified for different parts of the country.

The proposed changes to increase the number of MP's will be an attempt to address this issue. However, past agreements will prevent a true one person one vote situation. Using 2001 census figures, if the number of MP's in the House of Commons is increased from its current 308 to 342, you can expect the average riding population to be as follows:
  • Ontario 89,800
  • British Columbia 90,800
  • Alberta 87,500
The numbers for smaller provinces will not change. For example:
  • New Brunswick 72,900
  • Prince Edward Island 33,800
(All above numbers have been rounded for ease of use.)

The new situation will not be perfect, but it will be better and more fair than it stands today.