Thursday, May 28, 2009

Part 2 - Ontario Cabinet Minister, Bryant, Resigns!! - What Does this Mean for Duncan??

No Ontario cabinet minister has been more visible, in his or her quest, to replace Premier McGuinty, as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party than Michael Bryant. However this does not mean there are not others. In fact there are, and Windsor's Dwight Duncan is right up there.

Bryant was elected as the Member of Provincial Parliament for St. Paul's in 1999, 2003 and 2007. He was awarded Now Magazine's Best Toronto MPP for 2008. Bryant has served in several cabinet portfolios, with his most recent appointment being Minister for Economic Development. Bryant has been selected to become the new CEO of Invest Toronto. So as you can see he is no slouch. Important as well, he is only 43 years old, time is on his side.

Where does this leave Duncan?? Well if I am wrong and McGuinty goes for a third term, Duncan will have to look to Ottawa to advance his political ambitions. As I have said many times there is nothing wrong with political or other ambitions. However if I am right and McGuinty does exit at the top of his game, Bryant leaving does create some challenges for Duncan.

Let's put the goods on the table:
  • Duncan will deliver record deficits over the next 2 or 3 years (the deficits will be very big and scary)
  • Unemployment will continue to go up in Ontario
  • No sign yet as to what will replace highly paid manufacturing jobs
  • The auto workers pension issue is still not yet resolved
  • Health care is still not fixed as wait times for 90% of cancer patients to start treatment was 73 days in 2008 according to Cancer System Quality Index.
  • The new harmonized, Ontario Sales Tax and Federal GST, now known as HST, is going to be very unpopular, once regular folks understand it's huge reach
  • we have not seen the bottom of the "Great Recession"
The era of "Bland Politics" or "Bland Works" is over!

To be sure, McGuinty will take a lot of flack for all the above. However, much of it will also fall on the shoulders of Ontario Finance Minister Dwight Duncan. This may not be Fair Play, but hey, "that's life in the big leagues".

To add insult to injury, critics will have a field day comparing the "Duncan Deficits" to those of the former Bob Rae government. I am afraid for Duncan, Bob Rae may come out looking pretty good.

While Duncan wrestles with all of the above (not a pretty picture), Mr. Bryant will be very busy, very busy indeed. He will be meeting with industry leaders in the Greater Toronto Area, all parts of Ontario as well as Canada, and those from many other countries as well. Bryant will be able to expand his already sizable political organization. His list of potential donors and supporters will only grow, and he can do this without the limits imposed on sitting cabinet ministers. But most of all, Bryant, will not have to wear the responsibility of the "Duncan Deficits" the "Great Recession", and the list goes on and on.